Moisture Update - June 26, 2024

Maps 1 & 2: As of writing on June 27, 2024, a low pressure system is currently set to bring wide spread rain to many areas of the province. As of 11 a.m. this morning much of the extreme southern Peace Region has received over 20 mm of rain, ranging as high as 40 mm in a few locations (Map 1). Similarly the eastern parts of the Central Region and the southeastern parts of the Southern Region have seen well over 5 mm. This current system is expected to bring further moisture to the driest areas of the province, including lands west of Grand Prairie, the North West Region and a large area lying west of Red Deer. Please note that this rain is not included in the remainder of the conditions discussed herein.

Since June 19, 2024, precipitation has been variable, with most of it arriving in the form of thunderstorm activity (Map 2). As a result, across some areas the spatial variability on Map 2 is quite 'hit and miss'. Many lands throughout the Peace Region received 10 to 50 mm, with some parts of the east-central Peace Region receiving well over 50 mm. Elsewhere, conditions are much more variable with drier conditions of < 1mm of rain, prevailing through the central parts of the North West Region, the western and southeastern portions of the Central Region, and throughout much of the Southern Region.

Currently, lands west of Red Deer are extremely dry and have seen little moisture in recent months. This does appear to be changing today as the rain develops and it is expected that about 50 mm will fall across a relatively large area west of Red Deer and lesser but significant amounts across the dry portions of the North West Region. 

Maps 3, 4, 5, & 6: Recent 30-day trends in precipitation patterns have been at least near normal across most of the Peace Region, with well above normal rain falling across most of the Central Peace Region and a few pockets of once in 50 year highs both east and west of the Town of Peace River (Map 3). This coupled with the rains received so far during the first 11 hours of Thursday June 27, 2024 (Map 1), have put all lack of moisture concerns aside. In fact, much of the Central Peace Region has received well over 120 mm, ranging to over 150 mm in the east, leaving some areas too wet, likely hampering field activities (Map 4).

Notably a marked drying trend has dominated the weather of late across most of the land in the province, beginning roughly south of the Yellowhead Highway (Map 3). Very dry areas can be found west of Red Deer and south west of Lethbridge, where pockets of once in 50-year lows are emerging. Today’s rain, which will taper off tomorrow and perhaps return to some areas next week, is likely to improve conditions across most of the province’s growing areas.

Overall for this growing season, many areas have received at least adequate moisture (Map 5), with the exception of a large, dry area west of Red Deer, currently at once in 50 year lows, along with a parts of the North West Region at once in 12 to 25 year lows. This also applies to the extreme southwest corner of the Southern Region at once in 6 to 12 year lows. Lands southwest of Red Deer have received less than 80 mm since April 1, 2024 (Map 6), which is nearly 100 mm below the 1991-2020 average of 175 mm.  Similarly, a pocket west of Grand Prairie, has received less than 80 mm, which is about 50 mm below normal. In sharp contrast, parts of the Central Peace Region are very wet with some stations reporting well over 280 mm since April 1, 2024. This is significantly over the 120 mm which is considered average for this time frame.

Maps 7, 8, & 9: The 2024 growing season started off cool, and temperatures have remained well below normal over the past 60 days (Map 7), with many areas seeing a May and June this cold less than once in 6 to 12 years. This has slowed crop development and more heat is needed. The cooling trend deepened in June, with pockets of frost and near freezing temperatures appearing last week (Map 8). Cool temperatures at this time of year are significant, as all crops are now actively growing and in need of both moisture and warm weather to mature quickly.  Over the last 30-days, most of the agricultural areas have been well below one in 6 year lows, with many areas trending in the 12-25 year low category (Map 9). More heat will be needed moving forward.