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Moisture Update - August 1, 2024

Synopsis

Map 1: Since July 24, 2024, a significant rain event brought meaningful moisture to those parts of the province lying north of Red Deer and Lloydminster (Map 1). In this area, most agricultural areas received at least 10 mm of rain, except some areas in the western Peace Region where less than 5 mm was recorded. Some parts of the North West Region and, to a lesser extent, the North East Region, received upwards of 40 mm, which can be considered a 'good soaking rain', and this may potentially be enough to see some annual crops through to ripening - although further moisture is still needed in the weeks ahead. Lands that received amounts in the 10 mm range, would have seen some short-term benefit, but more rain will be needed soon to sustain the current yield potential.

The bulk of last week’s rain brought significant moisture across large parts of the Northern Boreal Forests, of 100 mm or more, with the greatest amounts recorded approximately 200 km northwest of Fort McMurray, at Picadelly Auto at 263 mm, followed by Jean Lake Auto at 189 mm. Most of this fell within a 24-hour period, and local flooding was likely a concern in many remote areas. In sharp contrast, south of Red Deer and Lloydminster, most lands remained very dry, with many stations recording less than 1 mm. At this point, it is uncertain what effect the dry conditions across the south will have on the more advanced crops. Final yields will be telling. Some early seeded annual crops that are at, or near, maturity, may still have quite acceptable yields. In contrast, perennial crops will need more rain and, of course, all lands will need good moisture this fall, in order to build seriously depleted soil moisture reserves ahead of next spring.

Perspective

The effects of recent heat and lack of rainfall have not been fully quantified yet, and many times in the past we have seen that less than adequate moisture over the growing season has still managed to result in higher than expected yields in many fields. Let’s hope we see that again this fall.

The July 16, 2024, Crop Report, which was released roughly 9-days into the July heat wave, stated that “While conditions are still rated above the 5- and 10-year average provincially, crops are starting to show signs of heat stress like heat blast in canola, while other crops are coming out of flowering prematurely or dropping tillers.” At this time, provincially 72.9% of “major crops” were rated good to excellent, which was above the 10-year average (63.2%). The Crop Report released last week, current as of July 23, stated “After consistent ratings on crop conditions since the middle of June, the recent heat was prolonged enough that major crop conditions significantly declined from 73 per cent good to excellent last week to 55 per cent good to excellent”. This week’s crop report, released on August 2, will shed further light on current crop conditions.

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