Moisture Update - April 25, 2024

Maps 2 & 3: Over the past 60-days most lands across the province that lie south of Red Deer, have been trending from near to well above normal for precipitation accumulations for this time of year (Map 2). Some lands north of Lethbridge see the last 60-day period, this wet on average less than once in 6 to 12 years. Maximum recorded precipitation amounts in these 'wet' areas range from 50 to 60 mm (Map 3), which has been enough to help improve soil moisture reserves, although more will be needed. Surface water supplies are critically low in many areas due to several years of persistent drought.

Most lands across the agricultural areas lying north and east of Red Deer, are still critically dry. Many parts of the central Peace Region and the border lands between the North West and North East Regions are trending to one in 50 year lows. These dry conditions have been exacerbated by below normal snowpack accumulations along with an early melt. Many areas did not see appreciable filling of surface water supplies (rivers, lakes dugouts) and unusually wet weather will be needed to fill them.

Maps 4 & 5: Soil moisture reserves are currently well below normal throughout most of the agricultural areas, with the exception of the Southern Region and the extreme southern Peace Region (Map 4). However, it should be noted that on this map, the definition of 'normal' lies between a one in three year dry and a one in three year wet. Therefore, it is likely many of the 'normal' areas on this map are still below the statistical average and are, in fact, on the dry side of 'normal'. Areas of one in 50-year lows are currently emerging across parts of the Peace and North East Regions.

Soil moisture levels historically increase rapidly in the spring with this trend persisting well into June, meaning if precipitation remains below average these areas are likely to expand rapidly.

Soil moisture reserves relative to normal are down approximately 50 mm or more across most of the agricultural areas, with the exception of the Southern Region (Map 5). A wet period that delivers 50 to 75 mm of precipitation is much needed. If this came over a few days, it would likely be enough to build reserves to near normal and help plants through short duration dry spells in the near term. Pasture lands weakened by last year’s drought are beginning to break dormancy and need moisture soon to minimize further declines in yield potential.