Alberta Crop Report - July 30, 2024

All regions continue to report crops in variable conditions as a result of hot and dry conditions through July, with the greatest concern being noted in areas with the lowest soil moisture reserves. If the dry conditions continue, expectations are that the crop will use the remaining soil moisture to fill existing seeds rather than developing new seeds. While parts of the North East, North West, and Peace Regions received meaningful rainfall last week, the remainder of the province is hoping for additional rainfall to be confident that crops will yield as expected. Most regions are currently expecting an average crop yield.

The provincial early yield estimates are reported this week (Table 1). Regional dryland crop yield estimates are at, or below, the 5- and 10-year averages, with the exception of a higher-than-average yield expectation reported for the South Region. The provincial dryland 5-year yield index is estimated to be 105.1, and the 10-year yield index to be 100.2, for major crops. This indicates that the current provincial crop yield estimate is 5.1 per cent above the 5-year average and 0.2 per cent higher than the 10-year average. Irrigated yield estimates are only provided for the South Region. Irrigated crop yield estimates are also above the 5-year and 10-year averages, resulting in a provincial irrigated 5-year yield index of 103.1 and 10-year yield index of 105.1, for major crops. This indicates that yields of irrigated major crops are 3.1 per cent above the 5-year average and 5.1 per cent over the 10-year average.

The hot and dry weather over the past month is encouraging crops to mature faster than average. Provincial spring cereal staging reports indicate that the majority of crops are in the mid stages of milk development, compared to the 5-year and 10-year averages of being in early milk development during this week. Similarly, canola (dry peas) is progressing at 81 (98) per cent podding, ahead of the 5-year average of 48 (82) per cent and 10-year average of 53 (83) per cent.

Provincially, 51 per cent of all crops are rated in good to excellent condition, in comparison to the 5-year average of 56 per cent and 10-year average of 59 per cent (Table 2). The South Region has the highest proportion of crops rated as good to excellent condition at 70 per cent, followed by the North East Region reporting at 58 per cent, the Peace at 54 per cent, the North West at 30 per cent, and the Central Region at 27 per cent. Overall, the provincial condition of all crops has decreased by 23 per cent compared to the report on July 16.

While notable rains fell in areas of the North East, North West, and Peace Regions over the past week, only the Peace Region noted an improvement in soil moisture ratings. Provincial surface moisture is rated 33 per cent good to excellent, a 2 per cent reduction from last week, while sub-surface moisture is rated at 27 per cent good to excellent, due to a 4 per cent reduction. Regionally, the per cent of surface (sub-surface) soil moisture rated as good to excellent is 35 (27) in the South, 30 (13) in Central, 34 (34) in the North East, 17 (19) in the North West, and 50 (55) in the Peace (Table 3).

Pasture conditions continue to decline this week as the hot and dry weather has limited regrowth (Table 4). Provincial pasture growth is rated 41 per cent good to excellent, a decrease of 7 per cent from the previous week, and below both the 5- year average of 49 per cent and the 10-year average of 50 per cent. Provincial tame hay good to excellent ratings have also declined to 36 per cent good to excellent, down from last week’s 43 per cent. This is also below the 5- and 10-year average of 55 per cent good to excellent.